Thoughts on Pakistan.

There are a couple things in the news that got me thinking about Pakistan.

There was this Washington Post David Ignatius Column
A Short Fuse in Pakistan
and some blog posts from his recent visit to Pakistan.

There was also this charlie rose interview. Is it just me or is Kissinger slowly turning into Jabba the Hut?


I didn't realize how chaotic and threatened the mood felt in Pakistan. However before hyperventilating it is important to understand the basics of Pakistan. The structure of Pakistan can be (overly) simply described as follows: The largest population center is in the east/central region of the country centered on Lahore and is known as the Punjab. This and the primary region of support for the two Pakistan Muslim Leagues N and Q one dominated by (N)awaz Sharif the other make up of supporters of former president Musharraf. The second major population center, known as the Sind, is in the south centered on Karachi (the largest and wealthiest city in Pakistan located on the arabian sea coast). The Pakistan Peoples Party and the current president Zardari (husband of the late Benazir Bhutto) draws large support from this region. In some ways the Pujab/Sind rivalry is the center of the political feuding in Pakistan. The third population center which stretches from Peshawar to Islamabad(the capital and location of Ignatius' reporting). This region is primarily Pashtun in the west and melds into the Punjab in the east.

The instability primarily exists in the north west, which was never really controlled by anybody, and primarily threatens only the Peshawar/Islamabad region. The primary support for the taliban comes from the Pashtun ethic group which is the largest ethnic group in Afganistan (~40%, 12 million) and the second largest(~15% 26 million) after Punjabi(~45%) in Pakistan. While it is a nightmare senerio and thus must be planned for seriously, I am highly dubious that the taliban would be able to overwhelm the entire country of Pakistan given that the army draws resources from all over the country. In Afganistan (since it happened previously) the situation is different and it is of course possible for the Taliban to take control.

The root of the instability is that the government of Pakistan doesn't really control what goes on along parts of its north west border with Afghanistan (vividly reported in this
episode of Frontline, I'm looking forward to this new instalment as well). In fact the government is mostly strategically indifference to the Taliban and even supported it pre 9/11. This is because Pakistan sees a strategically aligned Afghanistan as a way to prevent India from accomplishing a strategy of encirclement. Now however, the government is finding that it too is becoming a target of the extremists. This normally would cause a reaction from the state (i.e. see Saudi Arabia) but the response is complicated because many people see the real problem being that Pakistan has sold itself out to America, and believe if you got rid of the Americans then the threat would go away.

So how do you solve this mess? I'm not really sure. But here are some essential pieces in my view.

1) Convincing Pakistan that its long term strategic interests lie in partnership with India and other countries in south asia, using its connections with the english speaking world to build economic growth. Finding a permenent resoltion of Kashmir is of course central (and intractible).
2) Extremist groups, including parts of the Taliban, are Pakistan's number one strategic threat. They are the ones that will set off bombs in Pakistani cities, not India.
3) The taliban is a diverse group. Along with parts which support al-queda, there are elements that express the legitimate political ambitions of the Pashtun people. Any solution to the military problem in Afganistan and Pakistan must clearly and explicitly separate these two elements.
4) The US wants a long term strategic partnership with Pakistan, but is not interested in manipulating its politics or having a long term military presence.

Great reporting by Ignatius.