Friday, March 30, 2007
Thursday, March 22, 2007
No Tragedy Goes Unanalysed
I will give an introduction to this blog in a later post. However, lets go straight to the markets. Politics can be a cold and unfeeling place, and today is a good example of that. In today's news it was revealed that Elizabeth Edwards (wife of John Edwards) cancer is back and has advanced to Stage IV. For their family, that has endured much tragedy in the past, this is difficult news and I wish her all the best. But in politics, no development, no matter how personal, can occur without strategic implications.
Intrade markets moves Edwards' odds of getting the nomination down 2.5% to 6.8%. This is probably because they think that he with either pull out (which they have denied) or it will hurt his campaign. The real difference is that he has young children, thus if Elizabeth's condition worsens or if John becomes a single parent he is in the position of having to devote more energy to his kids, and less to the campaign. Without young children if Bill developed cancer this would probably help Hillary. Americans love to vote for the "widowed wife" and Hillary would become much more likable and harder to attack. However, the simple fact remains its hard not to see Edwards pulling out to be there for his kids if things get bad for his family.
So Edwards is down who is up? Both Obama +2.1% and Gore +1.8% are up, with smaller positives for Hillary and Richardson. Gore makes sense but I'm not sure I understand Obama benefiting the most. I don't see Obama really courting the Unions the way Edwards has, he works the outsider angle to hard, and I think Gore is much more in line with Edwards 'concern with the average man's struggles in a globalizing economy. Further, if Edwards is out this only increases the chances the Gore gets in.
To close on a contrary note though you have to admit that the Edwards seem to thrive in adversity. Elizabeth will have access to the finest doctors in the country. There is still the chance that in the end this will only add to the Edwards' back-story. (As I said there is a political analysis for even tragedy). I mean if they or he makes it though this, and remains strong, passionate about their vision, sure the voters will wonder about who is going to be there for the kids (just need an 1st uncle or aunt in the white house to cover this angle though), and come on who wouldn't be rooting for this guy a little more?
My Analysis: -2.5% probably about right. Don't get crazy with the selling though because as I noted this could boomerang. I think Gore should have been helped most by this, and then everyone else equally. Everyone should be thinking: " where is Labor going to turn?"
Intrade markets moves Edwards' odds of getting the nomination down 2.5% to 6.8%. This is probably because they think that he with either pull out (which they have denied) or it will hurt his campaign. The real difference is that he has young children, thus if Elizabeth's condition worsens or if John becomes a single parent he is in the position of having to devote more energy to his kids, and less to the campaign. Without young children if Bill developed cancer this would probably help Hillary. Americans love to vote for the "widowed wife" and Hillary would become much more likable and harder to attack. However, the simple fact remains its hard not to see Edwards pulling out to be there for his kids if things get bad for his family.
So Edwards is down who is up? Both Obama +2.1% and Gore +1.8% are up, with smaller positives for Hillary and Richardson. Gore makes sense but I'm not sure I understand Obama benefiting the most. I don't see Obama really courting the Unions the way Edwards has, he works the outsider angle to hard, and I think Gore is much more in line with Edwards 'concern with the average man's struggles in a globalizing economy. Further, if Edwards is out this only increases the chances the Gore gets in.
To close on a contrary note though you have to admit that the Edwards seem to thrive in adversity. Elizabeth will have access to the finest doctors in the country. There is still the chance that in the end this will only add to the Edwards' back-story. (As I said there is a political analysis for even tragedy). I mean if they or he makes it though this, and remains strong, passionate about their vision, sure the voters will wonder about who is going to be there for the kids (just need an 1st uncle or aunt in the white house to cover this angle though), and come on who wouldn't be rooting for this guy a little more?
My Analysis: -2.5% probably about right. Don't get crazy with the selling though because as I noted this could boomerang. I think Gore should have been helped most by this, and then everyone else equally. Everyone should be thinking: " where is Labor going to turn?"
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