Alright in addition to Intrade we will also be highlighting Rasmussen Reports polling data. They do traditional political polling but they throw in a healthy amount of random questions. For instance a lead story story today is Easter Poll: 76% Believe Jesus Rose From the Dead .I remember as a kid thinking they must have crucified him a second time after he rose from the dead. Pilate: "What he's back? He wants more eh? Well thats what he'll get!... And get a bigger boulder for that cave!"
My analysis for this post is to say I think the whole "America is a bunch of Religious zealots" storyline has been over-emphasized over the past 6 years. In part it is reasonable because they have been the core base for the Republican victories, but it beyond this there seems to be a general zeitgeist that evangelical Christians are poised to dominate the American agenda for a generation (watch jesus camp).
However the numbers tell a less dramatic story: self identifying evangelical Christians are only 20% of the population which is only around twice as many atheists. I like the breakdown of religiosity in the article as a good way to understand American religiosity without hyperventilating: 1/3 attend a religious service weekly 1/3 rarely or never and 1/3 are in between. I mean 25% aren't sure about the most central storyline of Christianity.
All I'm saying is that for those who would say there is no way Giuliani gets the republican nomination (including your's truly) should reanalyze the political landscape just to make sure -- not every wining coalition is the "Bush coalition."
