I Demand Data

Why is it that I don't feel the sense of urgency about this new election cycle that I did 4 years ago? Possibly, it can be fully accounted for by changes in my perspective and outlook, but I have the sense that I'm not alone in feeling this way.

It's true that GWB is out for good, but almost everyone who believes he's been a terrible president also believes he is ultimately a figurehead for a huge array of coporate and military interests, right-wing and neoconservative strategists, and Christian-o-fascists.

If so, and given the dramatic and unequivocally terrifying effects of this administration and its backers, why would it seem comforting to think that "at least Bush won't be president?" Isn't the lesson that the apparatus that put (and kept) Bush in office is extremely powerful and effective?

Also, it's not like we're (in any way I can think of) better off now than in 2004. Has any single problem been solved since then? I don't have to list the new ones that have come into existence or been exacerbated.

So then why no urgency? Well, one reason is provided in the previous post: you really don't see a strong candidate who bears any resemblance to Bush and his brand of Republican partisan. But again, this flies in the face of everything we've learned over the last 7 years. Has the machine really fallen apart? Has Rove really lost his touch? Have the Christian extremists really become bored with national politics?

Something doesn't add up. The solution, at leat on this blog, and because David needs something to do, is data!

We need to make some careful comparisons between now and 4 years ago to decide if we're really seeing something different here.

I demand the following data:

1) Bush's polling numbers from this period (i.e. 18 months before the 2004 election)

2) Economic indicators for present and 4 years ago. Are we putatively "healthy" now and therefore uninterested?

3) Polling data on voter concerns and pressing issues then and now. Same thing as (2), but with regard to jobs, healthcare, "war on terror," "security"...

4) Volume of speculative activity at this point in the election cycle 4 years ago, compared with now. That is, is my sense right that there's a lower level of interest this time around? This may be tough, because I assume Intrade was fledgling, if in existence at all at that point, so the numbers will have to be normalized by total volume of trades or something.