Rudy Takes His First Beating





In my last post I exhorted people (including myself) to rethink Guiliani's chances. I've thought about it: Still No.

Rudy would be a strong candidate for president, his image as a "get things done mayor" + "you know I'll take it to the terrorists" would be difficult to beat. However, first he's got to get the republican nomination and as the market shows he's hit his first big bump. Since around April 1st 07, the probability of Rudy getting the nomination dropped 10% down to 30%. In case you missed it here is what happened:

Basically people said "hey Rudy remember how you once said you supported federal funding for abortions? Do you still feel that way?" To which he responded, "Yes." He added the rather lame proviso, "I won't advocate for it."

So lets get this straight. Rudy wants to raise taxes to have bureaucrats in Washington DC pay people to have abortions. Umm... I have a feeling that "Focus on the Family" is not going to support that policy.

The worst part for Rudy is that this is likely to be repeated, as his liberal social views sequentially butt heads with a segment of the republican base they offend. And you know every other campaign out there is digging up dirt on Guiliani ("Hey Rudy remeber how you marriage is a right for people of all sexual orientations? How do you feel about it today?"...) with plans to inject them into the news cycle at the most politically damaging time.

Will it matter? I mean if these political storms all anger the same group of voters, who had stopped supporting him long ago, maybe it won't. The "no abortion" voters are the same as the "no gays" voters (which is much smaller subset of the "no gay marriage" voters), but gun voters are quite a different coalition "you ain't telling me what to do!" types.

Plus even if you are pissing off the same segment of voters that matters, because once the conservative base decides to demonise someone, they can take it to such an extreme level it can be truly devastating. It is one thing to not like someone it is another to think someone is a dangerous threat. If Evangelical Christians turn vehemently against him, other Republicans might start to not trust him just by osmosis.

Look, if the Democratic primary was all locked up then the independents might flock to Guiliani as they did to McCain 8 years ago. But I think this demographic is going to be much more split especially with the "I will unify" rhetoric of Obama.

But there is one last caveat which must be said. There is right now no logical conservative alternative, and don't be an idiot and bring up Fred Thomson. (Though he is also a major reason for Rudy's decline, "Fred Thomson" is is a placeholder, like they added a "none of the above" to a polling question. To me he is a joke to me until he proves 1) he is interested in having his life turned upside down 2) that he can weather a major political storm 3) people are interested in Fred Thomson the person rather than "Fred Thomson" the idea, which doesn't necessarily mean the same thing to everyone.) As the clock ticks you increasingly have to consider the possible that no conservative alternative emerges. In which case the only question that remains is can Guiliani beat McCain and Romney? The answer is of course Yes.

So here is the bottom line. It is still a long time between now and Iowa. Lets get all these guys on one big stage and see what happens. I'm not sure why Huckabee is so overlooked, and more importantly, you can bet if this is the way the field looks in 5 months or so Gingrich will get in. So that's it. Look for Rudy to go down. Target around 20% or so. Buy Gingrich or a real wildcard like Tommy Thomson.